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Ascot Wednedsay 18th December

West Australian Racing

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2019
    Last start stood Forceful out in trifecta's - first and second - couldn't have been ridden better, and wrote in notes after the race ( and realise we can all see it differently ) "on face value dissapointing, had every hope but didn't finish off, give another chance but just fair at best".

    Today somebody told me he was as short at one stage at $1.95 on Tabtouch. Bookmakers around 25 years ago would've been begging you to take 3/1 ( $4 ) about Forceful and punters ( including me ) might rush to take it - sometimes the horse won, often it didn't. But bookmakers were prepared to risk!

    Today they will sometimes go up at odds on ( astonishing) then drift out bet to around 6/4 ( $2.50 ). Or horse's like Trekking come into under 2/1 before drifting. Tuscan Queen likewise - no knock on them at all - but the odds in tough races sheeeeeeeesh. Come in spinner.

    Thought Flirtini would be super hard to beat in the Scahill - but once again - rock bottom odds. Fave's still win more races than any other odds - and they always will, but they are skinnier than ever these days.

    Not saying am correct, it's only opinion, and need to be careful not to generalise too much, but that's how see it.

    Overall I'd avoid outright fave's like the plague - despite the fact that one third do win - it's always been around that figure since 450BC. 30-33% do salute - just be prepared for rock bottom odds, their starting shorter than ever!

    Pointed out by a couple of the gents today - the $1.70 on that fave earlier on the card - seriously. ( That's not saying it couldn't win - just the odds ).

    There must be so many tote punters that follow the "money" and bang the tote reflects the same short odds.
    +1 -1
  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    684 posts
    Does Spiritual Warrior line up again Sat,i guess it only has to go around to get a check,but isnt the Perth Cup its main target,surely if it does scr that leaves 5 horses in a group 2 feature.might as well send Bob the cheque now.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited December 2019
    @Bomber if was betting a line how many starters in the Perth Cup - I'd have the line at 11. Am more inclined to think a field size of ten not beyond the realms of possibility.

    Already their going down like nine pins. A Perth Cup of pay 1-2 only - no wont go that low, but don't be surprised if just around 10-11 or a fraction less.

    They'd be lucky to get more than 4 or 5 that ran in the Towton Cup today - and who does that leave - Regal Power, Star Exhibit, Missisippi Delta and not much else.

    The Eastern staters entered - can take your pick - I'll walk to China or Chile if more than one of them run! Am more leaning to zero.
    +1 -1
  • FlandersFlanders    1,210 posts
    Rodent said:

    thefalcon said:

    rodent, I think you have IGA stores in NSW....
    IGA is simons nick-name cos "everythings a special"..
    Indeed. It beggars belief people would take $1.70.

    Simon Miller has had a below-par time of things in the last couple of months. Sure he had a bad run with injury etc but it must be said he's having a Barry Crocker
    +1 -1
  • FlandersFlanders    1,210 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Can't knock Taxagano - but if the Perth Cup winner was in that lot - I'll walk to Chile!
    Although can forget about the run of Spiritual Warrior - a nice little hit out.

    Missile Launch no hope for the Cup.
    Prize Catch was reasonable.
    Prince Turbo same, can't see either winning though.
    Forget the Musket.
    Forceful - am on at the $18...don't back unless get $51.
    Friar Fox might have a problem.

    Betfair punters who laid favourite horses like Dig Deep and Jerricho Missile in the Guineas, Tell Em Wer'e Comin and The Velvet King in the Railway, Trekking - Winterbottom, Tuscan Queen -Kingston Town, Flirtini and Stageman in the Scahill and Forceful in the Towton Cup - never had too many worries considering none ran a drum!


    I think its a possibility that the Perth Cup might go to one of those runners in the race today...
    - Can't knock Taxagano's form, nor it's tenacity.
    - Prince Turbo, the only up-n-comer around the place. Only thing is that it will not be well-off at the weights.
    - Missile Launch, definitely better off ridden off the pace, not suited today but not disgraced either. Will drop significantly in weight for the Cup.
    You might be walking to CHI yet ;)
    +1 -1
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts
    Thought Lucy might have seized the day ...her horse had run its race before the canter section was done.....in the Kal cup she got rolling when he started to throw his head around like he did today.
    +1 -1
  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    684 posts
    If thats the case of the cup feild being so thin,do some have a rethink,and pay a late nom for the cup,if thats possible
    +1 -1
  • udontknowudontknow    483 posts
    udontknow said:

    Does anyone know as to why friar fox was scratched? Couldnt find any reports anywhere.

    But have noticed it drift to $17 for the P.C.?

    Cant win imo but maybe an injury perhaps?




    Late withdrawal by Stewards at 3:00pm when Trainer advised the mare had received an insect bite resulting in swelling to its off hind.
    +1 -1
  • spinkingspinking    3,748 posts
    Good description by D.Mac in the Towton . Going as slow as a millipede with gout
    +1 -1
  • RodentRodent    7,046 posts
    Where was the change of tactics for Spiritual Warrior mentioned? I found out on Betfair when they started offering $16

    Uttsy likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    684 posts
    Whats everyones thoughts,this carnival,just seems to have dragged on and on,look at Sats acceptances,and a Group 2 6 horses,think its time to rethink,and id love Super Sat back,how many people are going to be there Sat,not many at all.
    +1 -1
  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    thefalcon said:

    where did I put that slice of humble pie?  :\"> 
    well done slip....
    =D>


    I'll never get tired of this happening @thefalcon
    ;))
    +1 -1
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    7,765 posts
    edited December 2019
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Just a fair day with your selections @Slip...
    Classic Pro 44/1 tote
    Shuwish around 6/1
    Megazone about 7/1

    Not too bad at all, and when they crossed the line thought Prize Catch comfortably third but watching live misread that finish for third

    Appreciate your comments Riders but you sold me short... 
    R4 Dolusky $5 place :D

    Christmas arrived a week early  
    $-) $-)  <:-P <:-P \:D/ \:D/
    +1 -1
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