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Belmont Preview, 1st Aug
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
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R1. Westspeed 3yo Plate - Scott Embry
Chantski is in-form and it would seem as though only bad luck can beat her here. Senso is a talented type resuming but first-up over 1200m drawn outside the favourite I find it hard to believe that it is a realistic chance of beating the Group 3 winning filly Chantski. Her turn of foot when Jerry Noske finally saw daylight last start was electric and given another soft run up on the speed I think she will dispose with these. Mary Abacus is still a maiden but should get a very soft run up along the fence. Poetic Flash with the blinkers on is one I think can improve sharply at big odds.
1. CHANTSKI - 2. SENSO - 11. MARY ABACUS
SUGGESTED BET - 1. CHANTSKI $100
Chantski is in-form and it would seem as though only bad luck can beat her here. Senso is a talented type resuming but first-up over 1200m drawn outside the favourite I find it hard to believe that it is a realistic chance of beating the Group 3 winning filly Chantski. Her turn of foot when Jerry Noske finally saw daylight last start was electric and given another soft run up on the speed I think she will dispose with these. Mary Abacus is still a maiden but should get a very soft run up along the fence. Poetic Flash with the blinkers on is one I think can improve sharply at big odds.
1. CHANTSKI - 2. SENSO - 11. MARY ABACUS
SUGGESTED BET - 1. CHANTSKI $100
Comments
Happy birthday to all the horses but obviously to Savanarola more than any other. Widely regarded as the most improved stayer in the State and an outside chance in the 2016 Dubai Gold Cup, I couldn't be happier to have my name on that list of owners. From a tipping perspective Im keeping my faith in Zarantz. Was coming off a 24 day break last start and may have been in need of the run. Drifted like a Japanese Honda in the betting ring and should settle much closer to the speed this time. Mystic Prince got more favours than the Magpies at the AFL Fixturing Meeting and simply had to win last start. This is tougher rising in the weight and losing W.Pike from the saddle. Verdello Blue will look the winner at some stage in running and should give backers a genuine sight out in front.
10. ZARANTZ - 1. MYSTIC PRINCE - 3. VERDELLO BLUE
SUGGESTED BET - 10. ZARANTZ $40 x $40
Ultimate Success has been a model of consistency this preparation and is probably the safest eachway option in a wide open event. Rare Saturday opportunity for Clint Johnson-Porter and this looks one of his better chances. Miss Gelana was bitterly disappointing last start but I think there were enough excuses to be able to forgive her. She raced over 1650 after a freshen-up and was handed the race on a silver platter thanks to a patented Dashing Dan Miller rought and then second-up at 2000m sat three deep at the back of the field throughout and just whacked away into fifth placing, a lacklustre effort to say the least. This race lacks any genuine speed which definitely doesn't help her chances but I think she will be much improved here. State Form strikes me as a bit of a wet-trackers and with the services of W.Pike represents the value in the race.
1. ULTIMATE SUCCESS - 5. MISS GELANA - 7. STATE FORM
I think Come Flirt With Me could bob up at decent odds and give this a genuine shake with a soft run. Has had more riders than a Hindley Street Escort but I think Jason Brown is a very suitable option for the mare. First-up ran an eye catcher behind Whataplan, a race which has produced subsequent winners Already Famous, King Closet and Royal Rada. Second-up was given a deadset shocker by Bowtell, raced 4 and 5 wide from the 600 and whacked away. Has run Mr Moet to a half length and this time last year won a 1650 beating Midnight Shimmer and Danish Delight. Worth a dabble at a big price. Oakhurst Flyer is second-up at 1600m, her two attempts at this distance have been beaten a neck Fathnoxious and a nose Bedamajo. Don't like horses first-up at a mile but DMac and Pike team up with Military Ruler and he must be respected.
10. COME FLIRT WITH ME - 2. OAKHURST FLYER - 6. MILITARY RULER
SUGGESTED BET - 10. COME FLIRT WITH ME $10 x $20
Old Blacksmith is a 9 year old who with 51kg of Emma Stent aboard will absolutely low fly over the 1000m dash. Calabria Joe will settle up on speed and may get a cosy suck run behind the flying leader with almost every other horse run off their feet early, settling in a bunched group 2 or 3 lengths behind Calabria Joe. I've settled on second-up specialist Terkel who should be parked at the front of that group and can really unleash off the back of a hot tempo. First-up was caught 3 wide from barrier 3 and one would only imagine little Bobby Turrell gave Pike a piece of his mind. Pike repaid the favour yesterday aboard his half brother Riki Tiki Tavi and with a second-up record of 4 starts for 3 wins I think Terkel can get the job done here. Recode will enjoy the hot top end speed but I query whether he can come from behind Terkel carrying an extra 3kg and get the chocolates.
5. TERKEL - 7. BLACKSMITH - 1. RECODE
SUGGESTED BET - 5. TERKEL $30 x $30
Common Approach is a bit of a bridesmaid and fast becoming a noted non-winner. His finishing bursts at all runs this preparation have suggested that a step up to 7 furlongs would be in his favour and I think the biggest positive will be getting down in the weights. Form alongside Prohurst Express and King Closet reads well and should be a nice eachway investment. Old November Red is now a 10 year old and remarkably not the oldest horse in the race with veteran Insurgency returning to the track for what must surely be one last preparation. November Red has taken his time to hit his straps but carrying a mere 52.5 he could turn the clock back. I knocked the Grey Enigma form last week but with Hazzabeel destroying rivals and Fitzrovia surprising me again yesterday I think I may have underestimated the form-lines. Happy to put my tail between my legs and include him here.
9. COMMON APPROACH - 10. NOVEMBER RED - 2. GREY ENIGMA
WA's premiership winning trainer Adam Durrant teams up with WA's premier hook William Pike for WA's biggest ownership juggernaut Peters Investment with Ideal Image, winner of the Listed Burgess Queen Stakes. First-up here for a new stable I expect big things from the now 4 year old mare. Has always shown well above average ability and this isn't the strongest bunch of mares to contend with. Planet Claire should be a very decent price and is more than a chance to run a place. Her last start effort through traffic was highly encouraging and at $17 I'd be tempted to play. Low Flying was a big drifter in the market before stroming over the top at Pinjarra, this is harder.
4. IDEAL IMAGE - 5. PLANET CLAIRE - 1. LOW FLYING
SUGGESTED BET - 4. IDEAL IMAGE $40 x $40
Going with the Big 'Orse in the last, Full Steam Ahead. The 8 year old Trade Fair gelding was superb first-up over the unsuitable 1200m after a wind operation. Second-up he reuintes with his partner in crime Paul Harvey and from a gun barrier draw can be more than competitive. Generally known as more of a miler I think this is right up his alley and with 56.5 he looks extremely well weighted. Should be bullocking into the clear as they corner and Paul Harvey has ridden him to all 6 of his Metro victories. Decent second-up form and handy wet track form that's the train I'll be riding home. Wroughted isn't known as a second-up specialist but I thought his first-up effort over 1300m behind super mare Wink and a Nod was gutsy. He kept coming, suggesting he could recapture the form which saw him deadheat with Miss Rose DeLago. Resonates is flying and W.Pike could be gunning for a treble.
9. FULL STEAM AHEAD - 2. WROUGHTED - 7. RESONATES
SUGGESTED BET - 9. FULL STEAM AHEAD $10 x $40
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My each way plays for the day are a couple of Durrant runners.
Bit of a wait but black booked Wroughted after last start, was could a little flat footed first up when following in form Wink and a Nod but hit the line strongly. Will go right back again from 12 but if they are running on, then watch him fly late out wide. While the second up form is terrible, i reckon around $10 might be a good go. The claim helps, but you might lose a bit in experience. Red Ora looks the testing material with only 56 on top . Maybe a quinella here as well.
I reckon the speed will be hot in race 5 as the preview suggests and Im thinking this will suit Ysmael down to the ground. Last prep went 1200 back to 1000 third up and got the job done, my only query is he'll need luck from barrier 1, but I think at around $15 seems good value. I could have jumped off the second level at the MCG when I saw Recode win last week after being on at the big prices in the Beaufine, I reckon he'll run well again on the back up but i''l stick with the stable mate.
My best bet
Best bets Midnight Shimmer/Star Bay/Terkel
best E/W True Gold
Best roughies
McScar/Gondiggin
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BELMONT 1/8 - Weather: FINE; Track: SOFT6; PEN: 6.8; Rail: 3m. No rainfall in last 24hrs, 32mm in last week. #waracing
https://mobile.twitter.com/RWWA_Thor/status/627258318306836480
RWWA Thoroughbreds @RWWA_Thor
BELMONT 01/08- Final Scr.R1:(7),(10);R3:(9);R4:(4),(7);R7:(4),(11). #waracing
https://mobile.twitter.com/RWWA_Thor/status/627267835597836288
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Thanks PUNTA for the great prices
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Roff Da Toff
Lord Balthazar ( quad players do not be afraid to tick fd )
Black Royale
Gondiggin
Young Lionel .
Ive got the freezer full of bread , for toast n butter all week if they don't salute
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Roth Da Toff
True Gold
Settlers Creek
Oakhurst Flyer
Blacksmith
Paris of Troy
Fo Shizzle
Resonates
Quaddie donations!
7,8,10 / 2,5,6,7,9/ 2,8,9 / 4,6,7
7/ 2,5,6,7,8,9/ 8,9/ 1,4,6,7,12 flexied
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I can't remember the last time Jerry did not ride a Saturday winner
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