In this Discussion
- Chelsea August 2016
- H-BOMBER August 2016
- hash August 2016
- jum August 2016
- lame August 2016
- PerthTurfTalk August 2016
- Ridersonthestorm33 August 2016
- RIO August 2016
- TheSwooper August 2016
Who's Online
0 Members & 256 Non Members
Belmont Preview, 6th Aug 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Carnivale At Crown Plate - Scott Embry
This race looks on paper to possess a great deal of early speed and for that reason I am more than happy to settle on Sweet Ora who should get the most economical run just behind them for W.Pike and give him a win in his return to the saddle. Last start victory was up along the cutaway in mid-week grade, however, could not have been more authoritative. Dainty Tess is almost impossible to knock, banking over $300 000 including bonus' in her short 8 start career. Conceeds 1kg to The Celt for a long head margin and 2.5kg to Invincible Mode for 1 length, will need to keep on improving to finish in the money but her form to date says she will. The Celt is still a bit wayward in his action, running around like a drunken sailor at times but is full of ability. Invincible Mode can take a sit and get the pie run from barrier 3. Badge of Courage looked pretty sharp in his recent barrier trial knocking off subsequent Pinjarra winner Swift Platinum with relative ease. Double Light resumes for new trainer Lindsay Smith and is another who can jump quickly and take up a position close to the lead. Pike to Pounce.
4. SWEET ORA - 5. BADGE OF COURAGE - 1. DAINTY TESS
SUGGESTED BET - 4. SWEET ORA $100
This race looks on paper to possess a great deal of early speed and for that reason I am more than happy to settle on Sweet Ora who should get the most economical run just behind them for W.Pike and give him a win in his return to the saddle. Last start victory was up along the cutaway in mid-week grade, however, could not have been more authoritative. Dainty Tess is almost impossible to knock, banking over $300 000 including bonus' in her short 8 start career. Conceeds 1kg to The Celt for a long head margin and 2.5kg to Invincible Mode for 1 length, will need to keep on improving to finish in the money but her form to date says she will. The Celt is still a bit wayward in his action, running around like a drunken sailor at times but is full of ability. Invincible Mode can take a sit and get the pie run from barrier 3. Badge of Courage looked pretty sharp in his recent barrier trial knocking off subsequent Pinjarra winner Swift Platinum with relative ease. Double Light resumes for new trainer Lindsay Smith and is another who can jump quickly and take up a position close to the lead. Pike to Pounce.
4. SWEET ORA - 5. BADGE OF COURAGE - 1. DAINTY TESS
SUGGESTED BET - 4. SWEET ORA $100
Comments
Flying Roar can easily jump to the front here, lead, dictate and kick away with only 52kg on his back. Was three wide for a good portion of the early running last start when ultimately going down to Stocks by a half length. Gets a 2kg weight swing here and without any noted front runners in the race can roll forwards and take up the running. From there he will be very hard to get past. Paseo Del Prado has been a different horse since leading, however, first-up with 59kg at 1400m may elect to take a sit. Grey Enigma loves 1400m but just can't crack it for a win. 7 starts at the distance for 5 bridesmaid performances, his last start at this track and distance saw him almost knock off Socially Unique, beating home Material Man. He can run a genuine race at eachway prices. General Groove hasn't graced the winners' enclosure for 641 days but his run in the Bolton was good enough to suggest he can be a big player here. Stocks rises to 59kg which may see his undoing. Confident those 4 horses will fill the majority of the trifecta.
5. FLYING ROAR - 7. GREY ENIGMA - 1. GENERAL GROOVE
Gangbuster was an impressive last to first winner first-up and then found wanting late over the 1400m when unable to reel in Fred Kersley debutant Chill the Champers. Dropping back to 1300m looks ideal and this race is very winnable. Rich Red should get a very soft lead and go close to making it 3 wins on the bounce. If Staples is allowed to get away with any cheap sectionals then Rich Red will kick away and win. Wild Gust was impressive on debut making a stack of ground late over 1000m behind Invincible Mode. From that run you would suggest 1300m wil be right up his alley and Frenchman Mattieu Autier is riding as well as anyone right now. Race looks to be between those three. Nightwatchman was very disappointing last start and with Pike electing to ride Heir and There it is hard to see how Nightwatchman can turn the tables on Rich Red. Gets a 1kg weight swing from their Pinjarra meeting, however, was beaten on the corner last start. Hope to see improvement from him but at the price, no love from me. Jupiter Rising on the quick back-up from Wednesday could give some cheek, especially if sent forwards to sit outside Rich Red.
1. GANGBUSTER - 2. RICH RED - 7. WILD GUST
I'm using the Simon Miller formula here: Blinkers on = Get on. We saw that on Wednesday with Coleta first-up, the blinkers went on and she looked like an entirely different horse. Meteoroid who goes round in race 5 was woeful first-up and then was a moral beaten second-up with blinkers added to gear. The Miller horses tend to grow a leg when the shades go on and so I am hopeful that it can work for Sweet As Bro here. Has been 895 days since his last win but his first-up effort behind Malibu Style was excellent, charging home into sixth beaten 3 lengths. Then last start was left floundering, but when you consider he has no wet track form what so ever I am thinking back to a Good rated track he can improve sharply. Senso drops back to a much more suitable distance after running a game second in the Belmont Classic. Loves Belmont Park but this is a challenging assignment and he is very short in most markets. Thunderclap Newman simply can not see out 2000m so dropping back to a mile is a massive plus. He will get the run of the race from barrier 4 and prove hard to roll.
5. SWEET AS BRO (NZ) - 9. SENSO - 6. THUNDERCLAP NEWMAN
SUGGESTED BET - 5. SWEET AS BRO (NZ) $20 x $80
This looks a match race between likely leader Meteoroid and exciting Blackfriars gelding Chocolate Holic. I was firmly in the corner of Chocolate Holic with blinkers and Pike going on, however, with the extremely important scratching of Forseen Meteoroid will definitely things to her liking out in front. I am hopeful that there is enough pressure from the likes of She Rules All and Laurensen, two gallopers who run well on speed, to ensure the race is run genuinely and Chocolate Holic can get his opportunity to show off his electric turn of foot and zap them. I really think Chocolate Holic is a galloper who will rapidly rise through the grades and can string a number of wins together. Meteoroid the major, and only real danger to the favourite. I'll save on her with the quinella. She Rules All was an impressive trialler and then simply run off her feet behind the fleet footed Audience. Can improve sharply and figure at odds. Countercat was backed as if unbeatable first-up and as is normally the case, Steve Wolfe's money did not miss. He is a sharp fresh horse who will have his fair share of followers.
9. CHOCOLATE HOLIC - 5. METEOROID - 4. SHE RULES ALL
SUGGESTED BET - 9. CHOCOLATE HOLIC $100
The last three races on the program are incredibly evenly graded and difficult form assignments. After much head scratching I settled on Lenience in race 6 because I think the Danehill Express gelding goes well fresh, regardless of what the paper form guide says and he should get the perfect run from barrier 1. If he can either lead or box seat behind a horse like Secret Nova then he will get a genuine crack at winning first-up. Pounamu is more of a 1400m horse but again his fresh form is much better than what the form guide reads. Was first-up in WA last preparation when he bolted late and recorded one of the more impressive victories for the Ascot season. Has only won twice from 19 starts going down by a long-head, short-head and short-head in the space of three runs. Capable type who will fly late. Danablue down to 52kg is one who can improve and figure at big odds. First and Second Up last preparation went into the Listed Cyril Flower and Listed Pinjarra Classic, this race is much more suitable and his form going back 18 months at Belmont over this distance would see him go pretty close. Worth inclusion in the quaddie. Secret Nova, Miki Two Toes and Spin Da Wheels will also feature in a wide leg of the quaddie.
3. LENIENCE - 5. POUNAMU - 10. DANABLUE
This will be an intriguing tactical affair with speed demons Recoiled, Stravigo, Audience, Buster's Secret and Three Votes all capable of really turning it on early. Buster's Secret missed the kick last start but can genuinely fly when she gets away safely. Audience showed last start that her cruising speed is elite, while we saw at their last start encounter Recoiled and Three Votes cut at eachother and set the turf on fire over the first 600m. With all that speed in the race it is set up for a facinating finish but one I am not keen to wager on the result. Stable Secret was run off his feet behind Audience a fortnight ago but with Ryan Hill returning to the saddle and the anticipated top end speed battle he can get his chance to knock them off. Recoiled is drawn beautifully in barrier 3 compared to first-up when he drew 9 of 9. If he can settle in running will be strong late. Three Votes and Audience look the two most likely to battle it out for the early lead and both should be there abouts, albeit paddling, over the final furlong.
2. STABLE SECRET - 6. RECOILED - 12. THREE VOTES
Present Arms run two starts back behind My Magic Miss when finding traffic throughout was enormous, and then was well commissioned in the rain when failing to finish off as anticipated on the Heavy8 track behind The Flirt before running on strongly from last in a leader dominated race behind evergreen 10 year old grey Verdello Blue. From barrier 9 with the master, William Pike in the saddle, I will give him one last chance to win. If Pikey can't get him to win then I wont be on him again. Entrechat had excuses in the My Magic Miss run two starts back and then if you put a line through the Heavy8 race which I from a form perspective then she is arguably a last start winner. Drawing a long-bow but I think at the price she is over the odds. Paddy dropped back to a mile last start and ran a creditable race behind Material Man, drawn awefully in barrier 12 but is another who can be competitive. Ready to Fire is a tiny little Musket mare who needs every single little thing to go her way as it did last start. Should get another soft run from the gun gate and is a winning hope. PTT Quad: 5,9 / 1,2,3,5,7,9,10 / 2,3,6,7,10,11,12 / 2,3,4,5 - $100 = 25%
3. PRESENT ARMS (NZ) - 5. ENTRECHAT - 4. PADDY (NZ)
SUGGESTED BET - 3. PRESENT ARMS (NZ) $100
MinesACorona likes this post.
RIO likes this post.
hash dislikes this post.
jum, H-BOMBER, hash likes this post.
Gilgamesh, Jordan likes this post.
Safe to say they won't try it at the trip again :-q
Must have ate a few fence poles his morning
jum, MinesACorona, Jordan likes this post.
How does a Towton Cup winner go round at that price
:-jjum likes this post.
Considering it opened $2.60 on Thursday (which I took) it certainly did look overs by the time they jumped
frenc11 likes this post.