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Moonee Valley Cup/Cox Plate Day.
East Coast Racing
Ridersonthestorm33
10,809 posts
The caravan rolls on to Moonee Valley for the two big ones. The Cup is a real raffle...nothing will surprise.
Going to keep it simple and spend $100 on the Cox Plate in Exactas with Winx to win and trying to get a bit of value by leaving the second favourite out of it. Need a bit of luck here but if Benbatl doesn't run second these are the three for me.
Winx - Humidor 50 times.
Winx - Avilius 30 times.
Winx - D'Argento 20 times.
Great days racing Waterford Crystal Mile always a terrific race...the AAMI Vase too. Which are now called the Schweppes Crystal Mile and Drummond Golf Vase!
Going to keep it simple and spend $100 on the Cox Plate in Exactas with Winx to win and trying to get a bit of value by leaving the second favourite out of it. Need a bit of luck here but if Benbatl doesn't run second these are the three for me.
Winx - Humidor 50 times.
Winx - Avilius 30 times.
Winx - D'Argento 20 times.
Great days racing Waterford Crystal Mile always a terrific race...the AAMI Vase too. Which are now called the Schweppes Crystal Mile and Drummond Golf Vase!
+1 -1
Thunderstruck likes this post.
Comments
Not Winx, Humidor or D'argento.Avilius is likely to be 3 back the fence at least and KWD will try for 3rd the fence on Benbatl's back if he jumps properly?
That leaves Rostropovich who also may not be keen(he is out of his grade imo)or Savvy Coup to carry the baton.Hard to forecast confidently really and its not impossible KWD breezes i spose.
Almost a lottery who runs 2nd..breeze horse wont nor will Rostro..all the rest can be in the mix just depends on who gets the best cheap run or cart up behind Winx who will do most of the work.
Benbatl might be very dangerous if he gets not too tough a time in front...
Be mighty surprised if Rostropovich or Savvy Coup run second...they will need to run out of their skin. It is tricky for second though.
The one more worried about is Kings Will Dream...he had no luck in the Caulfield Cup. Was tossing up between him and D'Argento..went with the Waller runner ahead of Weir just.
Going to take on The Taj Mahal and Trap For Fools.
Taj was massive run in the CC but after taking off early and sprinting hard was pretty tired on the line. Seven day back up and wide barrier - he will need to be exceptional to win it.
If he does that's an enormous effort.
Thunderstruck likes this post.
His best chance of running second ( and an easier run as possible into the Cup ) is to be ridden quietly out the back.
Let the pressure unfold and run home late, after Winx has dashed for home!
Anybody give Benbatl the slightest chance of causing the upset ?
It would be one of the rare occasions where the second favourite winning could be considered a boilover.
Has 17 in at this stage for Saturday. The big race days are not easy even with the numbers.
Vase looks a very good race if VE replicates her super Caulfield run we could have another odds on Oaks fav.
I've tried at times to have skinny trifectas with Winx as the anchor but usually something roughish runs second and stuffs me..most recently it was Youngstar had her for 3rd not 2nd.Exacta ticky also went tits up that day...
For Waller to Quinella it....that would be amazing.
Moonee Valley Cup a nightmare of a race. Who Shot The Barman and Big Duke on form should be 50/1 but always worry about those two.
It's about time for Libran. Egg Tart she has that bit of class, not going quite as well as previously but a big hope.
Lord Fandango ( was a classic song years ago called "Too Much Fandango" ). He's cost me a lot of fandango but was great in the Benalla Cup. Ok at Caulfield behind Yucatan.
The Kiwi horse Michael Walker is riding will nearly be rank outsider and not without a rough hope either. It's that sort of race.
Patrick Erin - Metropolitan winner - a chance at around 14/1. If betting a place he'd be my one.
Ridersonthestorm33, Thunderstruck likes this post.
Looks like Yucatan will run a clear cut favourite.
Was a terrific 5th in last year's Melbourne Cup and 2017 UK Ebor Handicap winner. Entered for the Cup again.
Is abit out of form but still a bit surprised can't get a definite start in a 15 horse field Moonee Valley Cup.
Kementari on a 1 x 4 basis for me. Was a bit dissapointing behind Grunt but he's better than that. The second to Humidor was very good.
James Cummings to gain another Group One!
The value runner for a place at around $4.50 might be Voodoo Lad he missed the kick terribly last start when favourite and did a pretty good job to finish fourth.
Once again import U.S. Navy Flag is surprisingly short at around $6.50. The improver ? Hard to get a guide on the Everest run...may have come on ?
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octavius likes this post.
Don't mind the approximate $1.50 odds about either Kementari or Voodoo Lad running a place. That's based on roughly $50 a place Kementari and about $25 a place Voodoo Lad.
The bonus is if ( big if ) both lob then the odds go right up.
Neither running a drum = minus $75.
Form has been quite poor unfortunately but her last run was an improvement and tonight looks a bit easier.
Thunderstruck likes this post.
The favourite Very Elegant scratched from race 10.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Just off the beaten track track for a moment...see that former handy NSW stayer and 400k earner Olympic Academy went around in a weak stayers race at Gawler today and won at a huge $43 carrying a massive 64kgs.
The minimum weighted horse in today's race was on 56.5kgs...25 years ago same race Olympic Academy would have got about 67kg and the minimum would have been 46 or 48kgs.
Most talking about the great weight carrying effort...it was..but by the same token, he was in comparison to yesteryear thrown in.
Thunderstruck likes this post.
A big drifter Kementari.