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Ascot Preview, 3rd March
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
Race 1 – Jockey Sympathizer
I’m a renowned jockey sympathizer and most would know, I’d be the first to jump to their defence as required (this is all a lie). But, I am going to stand up for Clint Johnston-Porter and his last effort on Asserto. This Blackfriars gelding had zero interest in being in a horse race early and CJP was forced to scrub him along just to stay with the field. There was then the criticism that upon straightening he should have looked to go wide rather than find a run through the field. If you look at Cockatiel, who was in the three-wide line on the bend, he was under heavy suffrage, with the shillelagh flailing about. It did not look like he was going to get any type of cart up into the race. As it turned out he did pick up to run into a placing, but CJP couldn’t have known his. If Shaun O’Donnell is a less experienced rider, CJP pushes out underneath winner Saetta and probably wins by two with ‘the ride of the day’. As probably the best arm chair jockey I know, I would have done the same thing Ports. Got your back.
The irony of the jockey change from CJP to William Pike on Asserto here, is the style of riding the Wizard likes to employ. I could just about guarantee you that Pike would have made the exact same move and had the exact same outcome (though he may have risked a further suspension with a Dustin Martin style don’t argue) if he was on board. This does look like a very suitable race for him, but from barrier 10, down 100m in journey and with a horse who doesn’t like to pick his legs up for the first 600 metres of a race – I wouldn’t be rushing into the $1.95.
The Harrison trained pair of Emerald Rose and Sanantorio are capable, while the trials of Fairedu and Onyahead were very promising. A race I’ll stay out of.
Selections
2 Asserto
5 Emerald Rose
3 Onya Head
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 2 – Neville’s Neglect
I was slightly positive in the first race, so I am going to bring the tone of my preview back to normality with some not-so-subtle digs. Last week Neville Parnham had Wacked Out in a race with NO speed engaged. Lady Le Jean, who had not settled closer than fourth in any of her previous career starts, lead the event with our ever-observant race caller D-Mac quoting “in a new role for her”. This was Wacked Out’s role. Yes, it was a B-grade Hollywood film who nobody will remember in 3 months, but this was Wacked Out’s moment to shine. His 15 seconds of fame. Instead a lack of research from the stable results in a scratching, sighting ‘the wide gate’ (8). I’m sorry Neville, but no. This is a genuine nightmare from you. At least you’ve made a good decision to fly Steve to the other side country, so Chris can ride it on Saturday… That comment won’t go down well; I am considering deleting it – but I feel like I haven’t been controversial enough lately, so will let it ride.
Tango Ora, Saturia and even Three Secrets are very quick horses early so Wacked Out will have his work cut out for him to hold them out. It’s a shame he couldn’t find a race with less speed engaged…
How To Fly is weighted worse than a 1999 Lance Whitnall pre being sent to a fat farm. The positive for How To Fly is the fact she actually possess a reasonable amount of class. Brodie Kirby gave her a 10 out 10 ride when knocking off Tango Ora at her most recent outing, though she does meet that gelding 4kgs worse off at the weights. The old ‘weight and gate’ combo are against her here.
I am going to look a little further afield and put Misty Metal as my on top selection. I am hoping the Robert & Todd Harvey yard do their own speed maps (hopefully not borrowing one from Nev) and see that going forward would be a near impossibility. There is every chance we will see a three-wide line and if SOD can pop this Oratorio filly somewhere in that, she has the potential to finish over the top of them. At $14 she is the obvious play.
If Wacked Out wins this, I will be deleting my twitter account and going into hiding for 4 to 6 weeks.
Selections
9 Misty Metal
3 How To Fly
6 Tango Ora
Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Misty Metal (9). I would take the early quote as she has been well backed in the past.
Race 3 – Graceful Larrikin
Was taken by the improvement of Corporate Larrikin at his most recent effort. Was well beaten first up when unable to find the front in a hotly contested Fitzpatrick Plate, before leading at a very strong click, when only being beaten by a couple of lengths. I don’t think the handicapper has been overly kind to this Trade Fair gelding as despite only running one placing in his last 10 outings, he has only dropped 3 ratings points. Look after out Southern visitors! Tayla Stone’s allowance does help to alleviate the handicapper’s cruelty and his last two third up efforts were huge. Can win at a price.
If Corporate Larrikin doesn’t steal this, then My Grace looks to be one of the better bets of the day. Drops weight and despite rising in class, in my always humble opinion, is actually down in grade. Sandalwood and Western Temple are the only two horses to beat him this Redoute’s Choice mare at her last two outings and both would start favourite here. She looks extremely well in.
My Grace around the $3 mark and Corporate Larrikin (who I expect may get out to a bigger price on the day) are both worth a win bet here.
Selections
8 My Grace
1 Corporate Larrikin
3 Ragazzo D’Oro
Suggested Bet: 80 wins My Grace (8). 20 wins Corporate Larrikin (1).
Race 4 – All Class
Sandalwood’s last victory was one of a very classy gelding. This son of Rogano had equal favourite At The Ready on his back throughout, but was absolutely no match for this up and coming stayer when the big questions were asked. It was a further three lengths back to third place. With equal racing luck it is very hard to see the 1kg weight swing being enough for the tables to turn here. Sandalwood is looking like a country cups horse. Cappo D’Oro was a very strong winner 28 days ago when making a mid-race move and defeating Woodsville. There isn’t a huge amount of speed in this, so expect to see Dan Staeck bustle him out of the barriers and look to take up the running.
The rest are just a long way below class wise. Rock Giselle could improve with a better draw, but I really think it is a three-horse race, with a very strong lean toward favourite Sandalwood.
Selections
4 Sandalwood
3 At The Ready
2 Cappo D’Oro
Suggested Bet: 100 wins Sandalwood (4).
Race 5 – It’s Showtime
Last week’s tipping was an all-round nightmare. 4 of my suggested bets were scratched (looking at you again Nev), while Flying Roar did his best impersonation of stablemate; Baraki Beats, at the gates. Made it tough from there. To make matters worse, I gave Showcase a reasonable knock and despite not having the best of luck in the run, she won with a serious degree of ease. I’m really sorry Bob. I won’t pick on your horses ever again.
What a difference a week makes with Showcase looking like the best on the card. I’ve had to swallow my pride enough times in my life to no longer really be affected by it. Private Dancer is the only logical danger to her here, and with a different barrier draw I’d find it very hard to split them. Private Dancer needs to get out and rolling early. I would prefer she sat three deep the journey rather than had a cuddled run on the leaders back and got out on straightening. The horse can sustain a 800m run, but cannot sprint. Connections would now be fully aware of this fact and will be encouraging Chris Parnham to get off the fence at all costs. It can be easier said than done from the inside gate.
Superior Smile was scratched from a winnable midweek race and while he doesn’t have the class to win it, it is good to see Paul Harvey back riding in seriously good form. His effort on Watch Me Ney Ney midweek was some vintage Pontiff. It’s rare that Pike has his dacks around his ankles. $16 a place for his mount here is not the worst investment.
I’ve just tipped three relatively short priced commodities in a row, which is not really my go. I’d be looking at the three leg all-up at around the $22 mark (My Grace – Sandalwood – Showcase). It’s way more fun winning the first two and losing the last leg.
Selections
8 Showcase
7 Private Dancer
4 Superior Smile
Suggested Bet: 100 wins Showcase (8).
Race 6 – Field
As far as a quaddie leg goes, they don’t get much harder than this. The ambitious amongst us might look to stand Jeraft out, though I do see this being a potential ‘value’ leg. The problem is pinpointing that value. Jeraft’s last win was on the back of some serious support ($2.30 to $1.70) and Chris Parnham never panicked despite getting a little bit further back than he’d hoped. That field was mediocre at best. This has more depth.
Wanted Desire is the runner who interests me most. Two effortless victories when coming from near last, this Wanted mare has always had ability, but not put it all together in the past. Reminds me a little bit of Klondike Kenny who always ‘had’ the ability but until recently it didn’t all click. You tend to get some good prices about these types of runners until the general punting public start to click that they are no longer a three-legged crab. With Nelson’s Flight and Golgotha both likely to roll forward from wide draws, the pace could well be on here. If they are bunching on the bend, he should be too sharp for them.
I don’t like the apprentice going on Double Digit (though I am not going to lose a huge amount of sleep at Alan Kennedy being taken off), though the $21 compared to the $3.50 of Jeraft is too big a differential. Here is a question to any aspiring jockey (such as myself when they increase the weights substantially). If you have the back of the $1.70 favourite who is travelling nicely and going to give you the perfect cart into the race, do you get off it and look for inside runs on a horse renowned for a wind-up sprint? The answer is no Alan. I would have preferred to binge watch Married At First Sight than watch his last two efforts on Double Digit again.
Hay Magic doesn’t appear in the stewards reports for his latest effort, but should. I don’t think he ever got the chance to really wind up in a race which was run at a farcical tempo. Miracle Man’s last effort was huge, while the $31 about Thunder Boom is another you could make a case for as being considerable overs. He appeared to be bolting on his return to the track when being held up the majority of the straight.
Good luck. We’ll need it.
Selections
10 Wanted Desire
9 Miracle Man
3 Double Digit
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 7 – Each Way All Day
Hoboken was the cause of great consternation on twitter after a couple of unlucky runs this campaign. Second up behind Dutch Spy, he appeared to be the unlucky runner, before third up looking like a moral beaten at 20/1. I wasn’t jumping over the moon with this result and salt was further rubbed into the wound for this very slow learner, when he saluted at his next outing for new jockey Kate Witten. The form from that race doesn’t read all that well (Jelani Express who ran second, failed at his subsequent outing), but this race does not have a huge amount of depth. Kate Witten stays on top and this Statue Of Liberty gelding (I actually did some research and Hoboken is a city on the Hudson River in New Jersey, a fairly loose relationship with the actual Statue Of Liberty) and he carries a career low weight of 53.5kgs. He is mapped to get a gun run. From barrier 5, the four horses underneath him will all either drop out or lead – Blackline will lead from 3, Southern Tern, Massachusetts and Snitz And Giggles from 2, 4 and 1 respectively are all tardy beginners. I’ve got him on Blackline’s back, which should be the best spot to be with the low weight.
Blackline has huge upside and has the potential to be in a different postcode to the rest of these when they past the post. What worries me are the so-so trials she put in last campaign before Miller kicked her campaign off at 1300m. This is only 1100m; does Simon think she is a more of a dour type now? She carries a career high weight here with the 58kgs and at the $2.45 must be some type of risk.
Princess Zelda has the form lines which read the best. Second to Lady Le Jean & How To Fly who both subsequently won good Saturday class races. She then beat Tycoon Legend who won not long after. What followed was a very comfortable last to first victory over Deep Cover. The barrier draw has been cruel to her, but she isn’t without hope.
Very easy bet here for me. Low weight, should get the run of the race, a field lacking depth. $11 for Hoboken – each way all day.
Selections
6 Hoboken
3 Blackline
10 Princess Zelda
Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Hoboken (6).
Race 8 – Susceptible?
Floyd is the sprinter the Gangemi’s hope will soon take over the mantle from Rock Magic as the stable star. He really came of age last campaign with a couple of very sharp victories. He does race first up without a trial, as he did last campaign, when he looked all over the winner before condition gave out late. That race was easier than this and contained less top end pressure. He has the potential to come out and win this quite comfortably or to also fold up and be calling an Ola (Uber’s are a thing of the past) at the 100m. Hard to get involved at the $2.60 without the base of a trial.
Long Knife was a long knife through my heart when winning the Fitzpatrick Plate. We tend to be in sync when the big price victory will come, but unfortunately our cycles were clearly out of whack. He won’t be winning this. I don’t know if Snow Lord is quite up to 72+ company yet after his defeat at York, though the jockey change from Maddison Brown to William Pike is like hopping in a Jaguar after driving around in an 83’ Lancer. The horse won’t know itself. Should be right on the back of the hot speed and can win the race purely from the low weight, good gate combo.
I thought Star Glitter was capable of winning again, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why Jason Brown has been booted from the horse. Mollie Clark is not the rider for this type of horse. Neville – I am available if you need a racing manager. I am serious.
Candelight Star, Yeah Dardy and Seeker are all winning hopes. I’m going to put Floyd on top, but I don’t think he’s a knockout chance.
Selections
7 Floyd
10 Seeker
13 Snow Lord
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Comments
ASSETRO, ASSETRO, ASSETRO. X_X
Not ASSERTO
Cracking write up though
:-bdShowcase will win the 5th.
Candlelight Star in the last for me, have to have a bit on my mate Star Glitter... even with Mollie holding on.
It was Chinese New Year day and therefore Jingtang was my guess!
Is King of Wu going to be as an 8yo like One Kool Cat that old horse of Ian Gladings?
Then just to rub salt into the wound(s), Battle Hero wins at Pinjarra with the superior jockey Jarrad Noske!
Anyway on to tomorrow.
Race 1/ I thnk this is a field job. Assetro needs more distance.
Party Night should win again.
But I will save on lots ore on the early Quad.
Race 2/ Salubrious, Wacked Out, Father Nick and Tango Ora.
For me it is either Salubrious, an underrated class act or Tango Ora on recent improving good form.
Race 3/ I'm with our tip[ster on this even before I saw his post.
Corporate Larrikin on his day is unbeatable and can run real fast time.
My Grace has to go in and maybe 1400 is just right for her.
Race 4/ The stablemates have it here for me.
I loved Sandalwood's last run (was on him) but Cappo D'oro is a more reliable racehorse.
Race 5/ Paradise Square just keps winning and the price looks real good.
You have to put Abdicater in for reasons of form and the top trainer.
Private Dancer is the logical winner.
Showcase to me is a big risk with the step up to 1500m.
Race 6/ This is v open .
Jeraft and Miracle Man are the logical top two.
But I also have to put in Barzinho, Golgotha, Wanted Desire
Race 7/ They are zigging anf zagging with Belter. After I tumbled in last time with a saver on it at the unsuitable 1400m I have to put it in tomorrow.
Blackline has to be in but is always a risk to me first up.
Like our tipster, I saw Hoboken and thought there is a speed horse racing on pace; go for it!
Vandemonium is out wide.Massechuetts has good ability but who can read Lindsey Smith's Mind?
You just cannot leave out Princess Velda on recent winning form.
Race 8/ OK we felt Star Glitter had a real chance last week; but 2 weeks in a row?
I hope I can find 50's on Forbidden Planet tomorrow! He can go fast on his day.
Of course Floyd up front is v v hard to bat.
Yeah Dardy with the right run is in it.
I keep trying to convince myself that one day Snow Lord will salute again; big diff with the riding change here.
Oh; I forgot Mr Motown (tell me if Rasputin is in town and I will ask him what Lindsey Smith's intentions are).
An unlucky 2nd in Sat grade. A 3rd to State Solicitor in 72+ grade. Then 4 wide without cover the trip at the Bunbury Sat city meet, beaten 2.5 lengths.
Stable was confident he'd go well from a gun draw in a race that mapped perfect for him.
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:)) :))
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Anyway, after so any years of trying to get King of Wu right I hope they can keep it up now, like Ian Glading's One Kool Cat. They don't have long to go though with an 8YO.
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When a bet like that comes together must be exhilarating, in an understatement.
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@Rodent, FRK said after dismounting first-up at Bunbury; 'Mr Lucas (trainer), you had this horse spot on to win today. All I had to do was get cover, as you said, and I f_cked it up. I'm sorry, he should have won easy'. I'm pretty sure he rode a treble that day too....
Saturday's race looked weaker than that race on paper. Plus he'd drawn a gate this time.
If it makes you feel any better, I missed the quaddie, by leaving out Stoicism.....
R5 Modern News was a bit erratic and still learning but ran on strongly last start and could surprise
R6 Our Mate Al has been disappointing but sense it will improve today.
R7 Snitz 'n' Giggles ;))
R8 Mad one for the day is Forbidden Planet. Did too much last start and fitter now. Hoping the stars will align for it today. It also ties in with Skids system :-B
I've got Candlelight Star & Forbidden Planet to quinella it from the field.
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