Golf BettingSport

detonator

https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSR8PqM6o/?k=1

Rory last night Haha@-)

VillageKid

The putting by Cam Smith is normally brilliant but on that back 9 with the Open Championship up for grabs it was astonishing, he was seeing every hole like it was the size of the Kalgoorlie Superpit.....he simply did not look like missing a putt!

H-BOMBER

Thanks to Cam Smith after his win, I was inspired (and cashed up) so I have now upgraded the putter :D

I'm hanging up the Mallet style TaylorMade Ghost putter circa 10 years ago for a new blade style Cleveland Huntington Beach Soft 3 putter

I look forward to still missing those 5 footers with regularity

H-BOMBER

Alright. Here we go. We had the Open last week but this week we have "the other Open", the 3M Open.

3M is a massive company. The 3 x M's stand for Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing. It is ranked 102 on the Fortune 500 list and they literally make everything, from sticky tape to body armour. 3M lists its highest revenue stream from "Tapes and Adhesives" at 4.1 Billion in 2011. The company reported 35 billion in sales in 2021 and acquires around 3000 new patents per annum. 

@-)

A bit of a lull at this time of year after major championship season. With only 3 rounds to go (Yes only 3!!!) in the regular season before the FedEX Cup playoffs, players comfortable in the top 125 will be resting while this at 100 or more will be scrambling to play and finish as high up as possible, to ensure their place in the top 125 and in the rankings for the 3 playoff tournments, culminating at Eastlake for 20 million to the winner.

The course is played in Twin Cities Minnesota. From the PGA Tour website

"TPC Twin Cities, par 71, 7,431 yards. Minnesota native and former world No.1 Tom Lehman was the player consultant for the layout, located about 15 miles north of Minneapolis/St. Paul. It utilizes natural, rolling terrain on the site of a former sod farm – and features lots of water. One of the signature holes, the risk/reward par-4 7th, is named ‘Tom’s Thumb’ after Lehman. Arnold Palmer and his design company were the architects of the club, which opened in 2000."

Looking at course history for players along with course data and strokes gained metrics, the standouts are strokes gained around the green, with driving accuracy and putting to a lesser degree. One thing to consider is players coming back from a physically and emotionally draining week from the Open and whether they can carry any momentum through to this "lighter" week.

Playing outrights and First Round Leaders this week with a total spend of 20 units. A combination of bank protection and lesser tournament leading up to the playoffs. Here. We. Go.

Davis Riley ($25) - Was pushing Cam Young for rookie of the year, and while the other Cam has this sown up, Davis Riley has impressed in his debut season on the tour. He hasnt played for a few weeks since at the Travellers, and may need to knock off a bit of rust, but his stats and the eye test doesnt doesnt lie. He sits comfortably at #23 in Fedex Cup standings and my only fear this week is he is using it as a barrier trial for the coming month into Fedex. Still, cant see him being there not to win.

Adam Hadwin ($29) - Hadwin rates highly around the green and in course history statistics. He rates 1st in weighted strokes gained ARG and has a 6th last year and a 4th in 2019. This bodes well for the bearded canadian and while he has been up and down this season, the 3M presents a great opportunity. He sits 53rd in Fedex rank so is relatively safe.

JY Kim ($31) - Step by Step...oh baby! New Kid on the Block. This 20yo has been granted a special PGA tour exemption as one of the young studs out from Korea. The PGA tour have granted this to keep him in the PGA tour and not have him swallowed by the LIV dragon. He doesnt have to worry about Fedex Cup (as he cant win points) and he is young and raring to play. He has been impressive this season with only 5 starts. He has a missed cut at the PGA Championship, 46th last week at The Open, 23rd in the US Open, a 17th at the Byron Nelson and an amazing 3rd at the Scottish Open a few weeks back. The kid can play nad smart move by the PGA to snap him up. 

Nick Hardy ($46) - Rates well off the tee and putting. Also has pretty good recent form. His problems lie around the green, but in his last 6 starts (5 PGA tour and one Korn Ferry event), he has gained an average of 8.27 strokes to the field. This is significant with a T8 at the Travellers and a 14th in the US Open, both high strength of field events. Sits 132 in Fedex Cup so is desperate for a good showing.

Wyndham Clark ($51) - Liked him at big odds last week in the Open Championship. He made the cut, but thats about all. He was out early both days of the weekend and had a chance to play soem tough golf with really having the nerves and pressure to contend. I think he will be one of the few to come off last week without much hangover and am suprised at his price. He rates well across the board, except approach, which could be a problem on this course which is known more of a second shot course. He gains in approach for the week and I can see him winning. 

Rickie Fowler ($56) - Old mate. Mr Fowler. The little engine that couldnt at the moment. Poor old Rickie is sliding further and further away from the top echelon and his appearance here is emblematic of his current state in the game. I tried despeartely to find anything that might give him some sort of hope this week and really couldnt find it. He sits 129 in Fedex Cup standings. He needs to start playing better and finishing higher up. He is short at $56. This is the only thing im hanging my hat on this week, coupled with the fact i might jump off a cliff if he won without me. Adding him didnt hurt my odds to much so for sentimentality added him in.

17.5 units at $6.03, return of 105.46 if successful.

First round leader prices (36, 41, 41, 56, 67, 67) give a price of $8.05. Having 2.5 units on the cover the week

Season +318.22

This week -20

Nett +298.22

Best of luck and lets keep it going with the end of the year in sight. Eyes on the prize!

detonator

Going for a 5 peat.

No science in my tip selections.

Trusting my eye and gut feel……So here it is.

Hadwin@$23.00

Riley@$23.00

Cam Davis@$26.00

Sungjae Im$19.00

C.T Pan@$61.00

$20.00 on each

Good luck and happy punting.:-bd

detonator

Checking the scores on the early tee offs. Looking down the list and was shocked to see ex tennis player Mardy Fish in the field.

Reading up on him. I saw Jack Nicklaus commented he was the best non professional golfer he had see. Be interested to see how he goes.@-)

H-BOMBER

Poor old Mardy sits +10 and dead last after round 1 haha

Just shows how good you have to be to figure on these tours

Not that great overnight for my picks, with my best Hadwin at -3, 3 behind the leaders. He stumbled early to +2 but made up the ground and more to be sitting pretty comfortable. 

Rickie Fowler had 2 bogies on the way in to card a -1 and continues to disappoint. He had a round going but again down the stretch shat the bed alittle bit. Needs a mid 60s round to gain some confidence back. 

The rest suit between Even and +2, so not dead but need to get a wriggle on.

Watched Hideki take a 9 (+4) on the 18th with 3 balls in the ware. He subsequently withdrew due to a "sore wrist". More like missing heart. He will be the next to go to LIV.

detonator

See Mardy followed up with a respectable 74 after his first round 81.

I would be happy with 100 off the the back tees. Haha:D

H-BOMBER

Looks like we all dead this week. My guys have never been in the hunt and Piercy is steam rolling them at -18 and a 4 shot lead from Grillo.

detonator

Dead in the water.

I did have Grillo and Ghim in my thoughts before the start of the tourney but went with C.T Pan as my long shot. Haha. But you can’t pick them all.

Grillo was $56.00 pre tournament. Think Ghim was in the $40’s off memory.

Anyway, didn’t give Piercy a second glance so “tough titties”.

Might have to do a final round head to head to try and salvage something out of the wreckage.#-o

H-BOMBER

Doug Ghim worth a shot at $10 for some final round love. Leader should win but has a blister problem on his foot and is a non winner. You could do worse than having a few sheckles on Douglas.


I'm holding a ticket on Thitikul in the LPGA Evian Championship. She's 6 back but has shown her last rounds can be huge if she gets rolling. In Round 2 she had a triple bogey on the third hole to slide back to even and 12 back. She then had 8 birdies in 13 holes and missed a few easy ones to be back in it. She's is $29 currently and worth a dollar or two for an interest

detonator

Have taken a punt on the leader doing a “Martin Keymer” and choking.

Have backed the next 3 in the market for a profit in the event. Ghim being my best result.

With a 4 shot lead I would have thought Piercy would have been around $1.50 instead of $1.75.

Suggests to me they believe he is a risk. Let’s hope so.[-O<

H-BOMBER

Tony Finau. Where he be now!

H-BOMBER

A bit slow to get tpo a preview this week, unfortunately Im in isolation with COVID and it has hit me hard. Today the first day had any ability to look at a screen let alone look at data.

In saying that i'll keep it short and sweet. Most relevant stats are SG Putting followed by Off the Tee. Ive looked at last 50 rounds in a weighted setting for the Rocket Mortgage and Detroit GC. Ive come up with the following players

Will Zalatoris $17

Cameron Young $21

Denny McCarthy $36

Kevin Kisner $41

Greyson Sigg $101

Rickie Fowler $101 :(

Nate Lashley $151

At the prices, investing 22.5 units for a return of 121.6 units

Will have a go at FRL on the above 7 blokes. Having 5 units to return 37.2 units (odds on Tabtouch)

27.5 units out. With all this day sleep ive been getting ill be watching no doubt

H-BOMBER

Bonus bet!

Ive had 2 units on Bryson in the LIV golf event at $12. The reason being he would be the only bloke actually practicing and trying to win! He is so into this LIV golf thing that I think he will start winning with regularity now. 

H-BOMBER

Update

Season +298.22

This week -29.5 (PGA and LIV)

Overall +268.72

Thunderstruck

Get well soon Bomber and good luck.

Gilgamesh

H-BOMBER said:

Bonus bet!

Ive had 2 units on Bryson in the LIV golf event at $12. The reason being he would be the only bloke actually practicing and trying to win! He is so into this LIV golf thing that I think he will start winning with regularity now. 

I enjoyed watching Bryson during the open, he isn't the size of a blimp any more! Looks like his old self.

detonator

Ok…..must be Wednesday and time for golf betting

Will Z @ $17.00

Cam Young @ $19.00

Cam Davis @ $34.00

Max Homa @ $26.00

Webb Simpson @ $46.00

$20.00 on each.

All the best $-)

H-BOMBER

Tony Finau and Taylor Pendrith both fire out of the blocks with 64s to lead the Rocket Mortgage. Both came out of the real early tee times which was paramount to low scoring. Some stats as follows after round 1

2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: -1.3 strokes per round
Morning wave: -1.92
Afternoon wave: -0.67

Current cutline (top 65 and ties):

78 players at -2 or better (T53)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 4 under par: 42.3%
2. 5 under par: 27.8%
3. 3 under par: 20.9%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Tony Finau (T1, -8, 25.8%)
2. Taylor Pendrith (T1, -8, 10.7%)
3. Webb Simpson (T3, -6, 4.4%)
4. Chris Kirk (T22, -4, 3.1%)
5. Si Woo Kim (T8, -5, 2.9%)
6. Kurt Kitayama (T8, -5, 2.4%)
7. Will Zalatoris (T53, -2, 2.4%)
8. Patrick Cantlay (T53, -2, 2.2%)
9. Cameron Davis (T22, -4, 2.2%)
10. Troy Merritt (T22, -4, 2.0%)

Essentially, the morning wave had the best of the conditions, shooting nearly 2 under par compared to the afternoon wave which was a smidge under 0.5 shots. That's a huge difference attributable to the wind. I think this value increases if you break down scoring waves in hours as those in the first hour of tee offs would have had the longest time. Long story short, my guys like Sigg and Fowler both shot +1 and we're off in the first hour. Fowler typically stuffed up by being as much as +4 early and then getting it back to even with a bogey late. I think it's best O let him go. Sigh was humming along through 12 holes and was -3, bogeying 4 of the last 6 holes. On the flipside, Lashley ($151) shot -4 and this number could have easily been -7. Kudos to Zalatoris and Young who while only shooting -2 and -1, were well under the scoring average for the afternoon wave and things bode well for them with early tee times on Friday.

detonator

I like my investments to tee off early in the first round to hopefully get a jump on the field. From there confidence kicks in and my players don`t have to get desperate in the arvo wind in the 2nd round to make up ground.....That's my theory anyway. Haha. 

I am the weatherman this week. Predicting rain conditions at Optus and the wind conditions for round 2 in Detroit. Haha. :-B

H-BOMBER

Great round by Cam Young tieing the course record 63 and leads at -10 with the afternoon wave on their way out.

H-BOMBER

A bit quiet on here when we all out of contention!

Back to back weeks for Tony Finau with an absolute dominance in the end. He won by 5 shots from a 3 way tie for 2nd between my man Cam Young, Taylor Pendrith and Patrick Cantlay. You can't beat a bloke that hits 66/72 greens in regulation and has 1 bogey for the week! He is displaying a dominance in the last few months and goes into the FEDEX playoffs with excellent momentum.

This week sees the last of the regular season weeks before the 3 tournament playoff series. A number of players will be teeing it up this week at the Wyndham championship who are right on the magic 125 number. There has been a shuffle after the Rocket Mortgage and also with all the LIV clowns taken out of the FedEx count.

detonator

Went heavy on Cam Davis to make the cut. And he finished right on the number with a birdie on the 16th to get to that number.

He then missed a 6ft birdie putt on the next par 5 to make me sweat. Par on the last par 4 (342yd drive) sealed the deal.....thank phuck.

Bad day punting on the nags Saturday and went chasing on a 3rd round head to head. And we all know what happens when you chase. Haha. Only got that one wrong by 6 strokes !!! WTF.

:-q

H-BOMBER

Its the last tournament of the regular season. What a year its been. This week we lob to the Wyndham championship to Sedgefield Country Club, a course that has a par of 70 and sits at a tick over 7100 yards. Only 2 par 5s, it has a nice balance of water hazards and bunkers. Has a little bit of Augusta look to the holes. Last year managed to get on Kevin Kisner before the last round of play where he battled out a 6 man playoff to take the 2021 event. He returns here as defending champion fresh off a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage.

Lets get into it. Not much to separate the field this week with only driving accuracy a stand out stat, ranking 6/43 courses looked at. Keep it in the fairway and you will have a clear shot to the green. Go a little left or right and you will find a host of trees and errant branches blocking your approach. While driving accuracy is imporatnt, driving distance doesnt matter here. Spoiler alert, am fading Will Zalatoris and refuse to spend any money on Rickie Fowler anymore. Here are my selections this week and their prices in odds order

Sunjae Im $17 - Comes off a second in the 3M Open and looks to have recaptured some of his best form
Billy Horshal $23 - The bloke people love to hate. I dont mind Billy here, comes off a respectable 21st in the Open and has a good course hsitory here with two top 10s in last 2 starts.
JT Postan $36 - A winner here 3 years ago and a winner 2 starts ago, he had a sneaky 11th at the 3M and looks like continuing his solid form
JY Kim $36 - Will stick with him. Was average through 3 rounds last week however closed with a fantatsic 63 to grab a top 10 (7th) and is knocking on the door
Tyrrel Hatton $36 - Not normally one of mine but showed a lot in the Open Championship early and finishing 11th overall. He eliminates a few mistakes in his round and he'll be there contending.
Aaron Wise $36 - Power rankings wise he rates highest in weighted strokes gained. Has been going along OK and back in this grade might see him show up before the Fedex playoffs.

Play these 6 blokes at a price of $4.69, will plow 17.5 units into them this week for a return of 82 units.
No FRL this week, will be playing the Womens AIG Open (British Open at Muirfield) and having some doubles

In the Womens AIG Open, going 1 out for a hero bet. Bypassing all my normal favs Thitikul, Minjee, JY KO, Lydia KO and lobbing 5 units each way at $19 into Hyu Joo Kim (Korea). She has had a great season, with 6 x top 10 finishes and a win in the Lotte Championship. Her last last 3 starts have been excellent, with a T5 at the PGA Major Championship, a T3 at the Evian Major Championship and last week a fantastic T3 in the Scoittish Open.

5 units each way at $19 will return 118 units if wins. Place pays to 1/5th to 6th place for 23 units returned


Additionally, have 0.25 units on each of the doubles between the tournaments for a total of 1.5 units.


Season +268.72

This week - 29 units

Overall +239.72 units (29 alive)

Good luck!

detonator

Changing tack this week and doing something a little different.

Will Z …Top 20 finish into Minjee….Top 10 finish 

$100@$6.18 for a return of $618.00,

Got a good feeling about this one Haha.

 

Giddyup boys !!! 

:-bd

H-BOMBER

Not a bad opening round for my 6 blokes. Headed by Sunjae at -7 (2nd), Aaron Wise is -5, JT Poston -4, Tom Kim  and Horshel at -3 with Hatton bringing up the rear T41 at -2. 

Interesting days play. Tom kim started on the first hole with a quadruple bogey 8 and then proceeded to shoot 7 birdies on the way in to card a -3, absolute massive effort. Sunjae was very solid, as was Wise. The others, especially Hatton, shaved many a cup and could have scored a lot better. 

Pre tournamnet favorites Zalatoris and Lowry both had +1s for the day, Zalatoris with a disappointing double on the last after going out of bounds off the tee while Lowrys card was all over the place, starting with a double bogey, then had 3 more bogeys, a birdie, an eagle and 3 pars. He was all over the shop.

Notably, Rickie Fowler also shot +1. Happy to have faded him and the former 2 above this week thus far. 

H-BOMBER

In the ladies, my pick, Hyu Joo Kim, stumbled out of the blocks in the Womens Open with a disappointing +2 round to be 8 shots behind leader Hinako Shibuno (-6). Kim was -1 early and then carded 4 bogies and birdie coming in to sit right on the cut line going into round 2. She needs to get her butt into gear if she is going to figure over the weekend and this even more so with an afternoon tee time around Muirfield. 

Annoyingly, my normal picks of Minjee Lee (-3), Thitikul and Lydia Ko (E) all finished better while JY Ko is out of sorts with a +5 round. 

H-BOMBER

For those following the men, it's all happening. They are currently suspended in round 3 due to lightning strikes where the leaders are Sunjae Im and Brandon Wu. Im has played 11 holes in his third round. He is the current favorite at 3.25. There is a log jam at the top with a record 89 players making the cut because Smotherman cane back in the morning needing 2 para to make the cut and keep it at -2. He lips out a birdie putt on 17 and then takes double on the last, singlehandedly moving the cut line from -2 to -1 while knocking himself out of the weekend at even par and the FedEx cup. Tough pill to swallow

Of mine, Im is leading while Tom Kim is one back and Aron Wise is 3 back. Well placed ......


Of note other things that happened

Shane Lowry though he missed the cut so flew home, only to realise then he had made the cut and flew private back to take part in the weekend

Will Zalatoris has sacked his caddie after a third round 66 as it was seemingly getting in the way of their friendship. He retains his short game coach for round four and will have anew caddie for the FedEx cup playoffs.

detonator

Been watching the womens golf mainly because of the timing.

The leader looks bulletproof. Be hard to catch.

My investment Minjee was pedestrian thru the first 3 rounds. Birdies were happening all around her last night but she hasn’t been able to drop a putt in 3 days.

Interesting to hear you talk about Will Z Bomber. Wasn’t aware of caddy issues.

2 double bogeys in his first 3 rounds hasn’t helped his cause.

Just sweating on that top 20 finish. Currently tied in 15th. 

You looking good Bomber with a couple of live chances. 

Good luck.

$-)