New Handicapping System for the Trots

savethegame · February 2019

Don't take your guns to town son leave your guns at home son.
when confucius. say A kettle will fix
(HWOE). hot water on everything.

getthechange · February 2019

re savethegame

assistant handicapper - no - health issues and wouldn't have the qualifications anyway

hra ratings - I opposed the ratings system put forward by RWWA some years back and the hra system sounds similar - have followed the links that others have provided on PTT the last few weeks but haven't looked at it closely and probably wont unless it looks like being implemented

getthechange · February 2019

re aussiebattler - dredlock Rockstar - pref draws

dredlock Rockstar - he is one of the winners in the transition as despite winning about six metro races under the old system he was an M1 when the transition was done due to the drop back rule in the old system. All M0 horses transitioned under $40,000 and M1 transitioned at $50,000 max.

If he had been transitioned as a winner of six metro races he would have probably been around $100k but what if someone had bought him as an M1 horse.

Assume he had been transitioned as a winner of six metro races despite being an M1 then multiple winners that had dropped back to C1 would have had to be treated the same - As an example Torrevean Amunindi transitioned at $22,500 being a C2 but he is the winner of 11 races- Seekandyoushallfind transitioned as a C1 and $17,500 but is a winner of 9 races. Point I am trying to make is that if Dredlock Rockstar is transitioned higher because of his wins then Torrevean amunindi and Seekandyoushallfindd would also have to be higher.

Only an opinion but no right or wrong way - it is what it is and move on

pref draws - as I posted my preferred option is pref draw on Win $ last two starts this level or higher as it doesn't double handicap

Initially I liked pref draws on HWOE but now not a great lover of them as whilst they put the higher HWOE horses wider they aren't necessarily the form runners. The aim of the pref draws should be to ensure winners are drawn wide which is achieved by the Win$ last two starts but it does double handicap.

Hylee exciting on Tuesday is an example of that as he won a HWOE LT $12k last start and has gone up to a HWOE LT $40k and copped a wide draw for his win as well

Dreamy Nights on the other hand won a HWOE LT $40k two starts ago and would be drawn wide under my preferred scenario

it is only my opinion but I think they are valid points'

with the also eligible clause I could be completely wrong and RWWA may have the levels right as they have the data and I am going on gut feel.

eg RWWA should be able to tell from their data what % of horses are winning by using the also eligible clause and whether those horses are dominating. If they are winning a high % of races and starting at short odds then the also eligible clause needs tightening but if those horses are having little success and starting at long odds then they would need to be adjusted accordingly

aussiebattler · February 2019

If he had been transitioned as a winner of six metro races he would have probably been around $100k but what if someone had bought him as an M1 horse. (what if he was owned by the same person through his whole career ,don't work on what if's but on facts ) When being Sold this Product Barry would say Every WIN is a WIN (even penalty free R Class races )why should he or any other horse get such a huge discount ie $50k off his hwoe so he can race against genuine horses with 100% of their win $ attributed to their HWOE it is Discrimination,why have we not all been treated equal when every win is a win .

There is no reason why they cant treat everyone equal and then program races better to suit the population of horses .That was the supposed aim of the $won L5 races wasn't it for the horses like him on a higher HWOE that cant compete in there own HWOE grouping to have another avenue to race in (not that they have them correct yet )

GPPBD/HWOE is a false statement as it should be GRBD @ handicappers discretion as they are split(not always half and half but sometime 3/7 4/5 etc ) randomly drawn

GPPBD/HWOE L2 is not working as mentioned horses are double handicapped and if no horse has won in its last 2 it means nothing as the field is just RBD anyway its useless as a handicapping tool in races where the bands are so wide

IMO the sooner the go back to a genuine PBD the better ie PBD sex/HWOE and PBD/HWOE they could work that a lot better to get novice drivers more drives with a $value concession worked into it depending on race $value than what they have currently

so I ''Take Your Point" getthechange and I gettheneedforchange but they must getitright and they should have done that before implementing the NBM especially if they are trying to savethegame so that the average aussiebattler can earn a quid .We don't all have VillagKid, Chandon or Rocket_Reign type horses and most of ours are Offthebit trying to keep up with JayJays horses at the moment anyway they are flying.

p.s it might be coincidence but you talk a lot like an rwwa employee on leave for health reasons

getthechange · February 2019

incorrect

savethegame · February 2019

Aussie might have to try different brand of cheese.

aussiebattler · February 2019

savethegame said:
Aussie might have to try different brand of cheese.

:D

getthechange · February 2019

re aussiebattler

for horses that haven't won every win will be a win (25% 2yo - 75% 3yo up to caps)- for those that had raced every win will be a win from their transition figure - any horse that took 100% of its Win $ forward took the lesser of that figure and the transition figure

eg Luis Alberto C5 at transition would have been $37,500 - 5 wins all as 4yo+ with no drop backs for Win$ of $21,776 - HWOE = $21,776

eg Mondooley Mach -C1 transition would have been $17,500 but his wins were in low stake races so he took the lower figure of $11,518 as calculated below

2 wins as 3yo = 75% of $7,200 = HWOE $5400

2 other wins 100% = HWOE $6118

HWOE = $11,518

by the way - nice play on user names

Kane_26 · February 2019

@getthechange can you answer me this? The Marble Ridge is a C3 R3 but has a HWOE of $50,026.

He's never won a M class event yet is on a higher HWOE then Dreadlock Rockstar who has won multiple metro events. How is that possible?

I've retired him along with Buhn Lert as this new system has ruined there careers and earning capabilities. Unfortunately I have lost Buhn Lert's owners from the industry now as they see more upside in the thoroughbred industry but the maestros in charge don't care about that do they?

getthechange · February 2019

Hi Kane - I suggest you contact RWWA and speak to Bill Delaney as it would appear to be a mistake - cant see why he wouldn't have transitioned at $27,500 max

sonny · February 2019

I know it's in the infant state but how many more . Is it up to the participants to find the glaring errors? Well done to Kane and getthechange. Will the handicapper now start scrutinizing the noms or just roll on by ...

aussiebattler · February 2019

getthechange said:
re aussiebattler
for horses that haven't won every win will be a win (25% 2yo - 75% 3yo up to caps)- for those that had raced every win will be a win from their transition figure - any horse that took 100% of its Win $ forward took the lesser of that figure and the transition figure
eg Luis Alberto C5 at transition would have been $37,500 - 5 wins all as 4yo+ with no drop backs for Win$ of $21,776               - HWOE = $21,776
eg Mondooley Mach -C1 transition would have been $17,500 but his wins were in low stake races so he took the lower figure of $11,518 as calculated below
            2 wins as 3yo = 75% of $7,200 = HWOE $5400
                                2 other wins 100% = HWOE $6118
                                                  HWOE = $11,518
by the way - nice play on user names

Obviously you Can’t handicap horses for a $ value they did not earn getthechange ,they should have handicapped them for Winning dollars they did actually earn ,which they have with some and not with others but it’s a moot point talking on here although entertaining is a waste of time ,as was emailing RWWA as nothing is achieved The system is in for 12months whether we like it or not with very little changes and the industry looks like they accept it for what it is and will continue to just carry on

Chandon · February 2019

aussiebattler said:
If he had been transitioned as a winner of six metro races he would have probably been around $100k but what if someone had bought him as an M1 horse. (what if he was owned by the same person through his whole career ,don't work on what if's but on facts ) When being Sold this Product Barry would say Every WIN is a WIN (even penalty free R Class races )why should he or any other horse get such a huge discount ie $50k off his hwoe so he can race against genuine horses with 100% of their win $ attributed to their HWOE it is Discrimination,why have we not all been treated equal when every win is a win .
There is no reason why they cant treat everyone equal and then program races better to suit the population of horses .That was the supposed aim of the $won L5 races wasn't it for the horses like him on a higher HWOE that cant compete in there own HWOE grouping to have another avenue to race in (not that they have them correct yet )
GPPBD/HWOE is a false statement as it should be GRBD @ handicappers discretion as they are split(not always half and half but sometime 3/7 4/5 etc ) randomly drawn
GPPBD/HWOE L2 is not working as mentioned horses are double handicapped and if no horse has won in its last 2 it means nothing as the field is just RBD anyway its useless as a handicapping tool in races where the bands are so wide
IMO the sooner the go back to a genuine PBD the better ie PBD sex/HWOE and PBD/HWOE they could work that a lot better to get novice drivers more drives with a $value concession worked into it depending on race $value than what they have currently

so I ''Take Your Point" getthechange and I gettheneedforchange but they must getitright and they should have done that before implementing the NBM especially if they are trying to savethegame so that the average aussiebattler can earn a quid .We don't all have VillagKid, Chandon or Rocket_Reign type horses and most of ours are Offthebit trying to keep up with JayJays horses at the moment anyway they are flying.

p.s it might be coincidence but you talk a lot like an rwwa employee on leave for health reasons

That was Simply Sweet but I'll leave you two to have your Just Barney.

aussiebattler · February 2019

Ahh Chandon you outed me by referencing my horses lol
Simply Sweet is enjoying retirement Just Barney (who is on his true W$)is the only one we have in work now he is in the LT40 k range which makes it tougher to place him with so many getting special treatment on transition but I try to find races he can earn in .
No need to hide behind suedonyms
Jeremy Thornton (AussieBattler)

savethegame · February 2019

Getthechange you will have to get trouble shooting rates.so you can stop the hitchhikering what does this do for stands anything untoward is it because the half dozen big players don't like stands because of the variables a stand throws up. I find the opportunity with stands for a small outlay re- novelties can lead to decent returns which suit the majority in tab land.Do you believe they can survive.nothing changes with new system bands re stands is that right

curmudgeon · February 2019

I have stated this before but I will be as blunt as I can be here in rephrasing it.

We have a number of horses who for various reasons have not raced for some time.

Horse 1 Won a 3RO

Horse 2 Won an RO

Horse 3 Won a 3CO

Horse 4 has won 4 races incl 3 midweeks at GP and has been placed in MO events in personal M/R of 1.56.3 & 1.56.5. He has a LTE of 41 K and HWOE of 14.5 K

When we got involved with each of these horses they were all registered to race under the MCR system and part of the equation was the consideration that under that system they could drop return to CO status and thus race in non winner class of races. All except horse 4 who it was intended to keep racing at GP in MO company because he goes well at that track and has had physical problems so longevity although not an issue now is always in the back of our mind .Therefore it is appropriate to make hay whilst the sun shines with him. Nup .....under the NBM he is not eligible to compete in town even though he had been doing so adequately for 2 years until spelling. Would RWWA like to appoint itself the training entity of horse 4 as they seem to have a better idea of this horses capabilities and fitness levels than we do ?

The other horses were all bought or bred with the intention of winning from CO up as aged horses if that was the classification that settled on them at that point.

None of those first 3 horse can now race against non winning CO - ie Maiden horses as they would have done under the system they were registered to compete in initially. None of these 3 will cause any sensation on the track but they are all capable of winning a Maiden in the right circumstances. None of them will ever be eligible to compete in Maidens under this new system.

To put it another way the NBM ...if we were to nominate next week for the lowest class of races they are eligible for ...has put its hand in our pockets and made us ineligible for races to the value of $28 K at the lowest level they would otherwise have been eligible for under the old MCR system. It is like driving out of a showroom with a 3 year warranty on your car then 12 months later being told....the rules have changed now you have no warranty.

The new model has been magnanimous in transition with huge earning juveniles...less than sympathetic to horses that accumulated decent stakemoney by yoyoing through the classes over extended periods of time and shrugged its shoulders at the cellar dwellers in terms of what they had remained eligible for under the old MCR system.

The transition has been a train wreck in terms of discriminatory application of any over arching principle.

Also...as long as handicapping remains aligned to stakemony won the handicapping system will be subject to expansion and contraction with stakemoney variation and policy. Danger Will Robinson....there are a million anomalies that could evolve with this over time.

That is also part of the reason that dissociated numerical ratings such as those arrived at in the HRA system will soon make the NBM look like a convoluted patchwork of short term remedies.

Smart management would put its hands in the air now and join the national system rather than delaying the inevitable. Otherwise ....the money spent on the NBM will only be a precursor to its negative impact when set against a system operating everywhere else in Australia.

JayJay · February 2019

Interesting to see the change in commentary from those that promote the new model. Initial responses to critics of the dreadful transitioning mechanism were "Umm, yes, I take your point but we couldn't use "true" win dollars and there may be winners and losers under the HWOE ....maybe????.....response from the critics was "No maybe, there will be" and so it came to pass.

The next response was that any anomalies will work their way out of the system as we proceed......and they will, given time...."time" that was originally 3 months but which has now elasticised out to 12 months and beyond.....but the fundamental principle of fairness in the transition process was manifestly slaughtered to the huge benefit of some and the gross detriment of many. That is a fact, and undeniable, set in concrete fact and it will always be so.

The latest response is "move on, get over it, build a bridge".....the standard response to the implementation of a crook decision at any level of administration. Plus the snide poisonous barbs like "why are you whingeing, you are doing really well under the new system, you were all about feathering your own nest".......which is completely disrespectful to the skills and abilities of the horses, the trainer, the driver, the judgement etc ....and is completely erroneous in its basis.

If you followed the great crayfish debate at government level, the are many parallels. The idea, like the new harness handicapping model was sound.....get cheaper crayfish and more of them available so the average Joe Blow might be able to buy a feed without selling the children, the car and all their worldly possessions. But the "Dave Kelly" model was a complete crock, a political and publicity disaster. But they hung in there, assuring us all that it was a "good un" as the wheels gradually fell off. They then threw it out the window, announced a review was underway that might enable the odd crayfish to migrate from it's ancestral home of Dalkeith out into the suburbs of the greater unwashed and then started trumpeting what a "great outcome" it had been for the community, the fishers, the crayfish......everyone a winner?????

Aaaah, the politics of life and the right to hold differing views......keeps you thinking, keeps you on your toes and in the end, it's what make the world go around.

Markovina · February 2019

Nothing to do with harness racing but i think your crayfish analogy is alot of nonsense

Quite a few restaurants - even leading ones in Perth dont have it on the menu anymore -too expensive - one bloke said a couple of weeks back - to make a profit - half a crayfish he would have to sell it at $40- $45

The crayfish mob are like opal miners - their greedy baarstards - and they have got a disease - and its called money

Markovina · February 2019

Be very interested to see the new Wagga track tonight ( 1st meeting ) 1070 metres and a 200 metre straight

Brand new site Harness NSW bought the land and paid for the track - which combined would have been plenty - these are the things you can actually do when youve got money

Now the handicapping - its only a 6 race card - theres a 2 year old race and a 3 year old race - and 4 other open age races - and there is a clause for all 6 races - " For Australian Bred Horses Only " - there not puppets over their

savethegame · February 2019

Marko there is a sprint lane don't tell me allowing two extra horses at look at the judge instead of going to the line full of running what punters really love there starting to get it .

freodockers · February 2019

Its called standing on your own two feet Marko.

Great to see a state that is prepared to back country clubs, local breeders and owners.

Difference being between us and NSW, they sold HP and have been in control of their own destiny.

Inerestingly 3 out of the 5 board members have either held positions with country clubs or owned pacers in the past.

WA vs NSW is like chalk and cheese.

freodockers · February 2019

Plus they are run by a board that is only interested in one code, harness racing.

Not a body that runs 3 - Racing and then the other two codes that tag along.

Markovina · February 2019

People on this site have bagged Peter Vlandys who is the CEO of NSW gallops

But he started off in harness racing in the 80s as CEO - and it was all about harness racing - he gave it a profile - got Ray Hadley in as course commentator - he got the million dollar a year CUB sponsorship

And he would take anyone on the gallops dogs - whoever - for the betterament of harness racing

With Michael Radley i havent heard him in the media at all - use to get the West Australian up until end of football season - ive never read one article on him pushing harness racing

curmudgeon · February 2019

Markovina said:
Be very interested to see the new Wagga track tonight ( 1st meeting ) 1070 metres and a 200 metre straight

Brand new site Harness NSW bought the land and paid for the track - which combined would have been plenty - these are the things you can actually do when youve got money

Now the handicapping - its only a 6 race card - theres a 2 year old race and a 3 year old race - and 4 other open age races - and there is a clause for all 6 races - " For Australian Bred Horses Only " - there not puppets over their

"Only in his own home town is a prophet without honour " Marko . Denial free thinking is generally anathema to the resigned world of harness racing.

Markovina · February 2019

savethegame said:
Marko there is a sprint lane don't tell me allowing two extra horses at look at the judge instead of going to the line full of running what punters really love there starting to get it .

Wagga should be a beatiful big track with very fair racing - because the radius of the turns is 110 - which is as big as Melton and Menangle etc

Question - which is the best WA cambered trotting track in WA with the biggest radius of turns and by quite a margin - and their racing is the proof - from the turn out of theback straight the last time - to the turn into the home straight - horses dont get lost out wide - they can keep their momentum - thats the sign of a good track

Ridersonthestorm33 · February 2019

Answer: Wagin.

freodockers · February 2019

Recall Kevin Keys couple of years ago on racing radio begging for a sprint lane to be trialled at GP.

Perhaps the subject needs to be raised again.

Would it be more controversial than the new handicapping system, probably not.

Would it improve fairness for all runners, probably

would it improve returns to punters, probably

would it improve the spectacle, probably

would it create more interest, probably

would it reduce interference, probably

would it reduce short priced leaders, probably

Will it happen in next century at GP, NO

We will just muck around with the handicapping system AGAIN !!!!.

Markovina · February 2019

Ridersonthestorm33 said:
Answer: Wagin.

Albany 855 metres - but the radius of turns is 97 perfectly fair

I allways doubted Pinjarra - big track 1000 metres but the radius is only 90 Bunbury is 87

To put that in perspective Bridgetown is 77 . Do Pinjarra and Bunbury need money spent on them

Ridersonthestorm33 · February 2019

Sprint lanes mostly assist the horse sitting directly behind the leader. Hasn't he/she got it soft enough already ? Barrier 10 at GP as we know continues to do very well too.

The horses tramping wide - trying to get into the race - most don't - give them a go. There the ones that need help.

Pegs dominated races have been in vogue often at GP - add a sprint lane and they will really dominate the dojo!

freodockers · February 2019

Drove 800 mtr track with sprint lane on many occasions and found it actually opens the field up. Found it didn't worry horses coming from out wide as the driver adjusted to suit. Also benefited horses 3/4 back the pegs more than anything. On a smaller 800 mtr track brings another dimension into the race and doesn't automatically guarantee the horse behind the leader a win. It still has to be good enough.

G'day Punter!

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